Each time David Stern announced a pick at the NBA draft last night, every basketball writer who published a mock draft put his credibility on the line.
So whose draft predictions were the most accurate?
We took the final mock drafts of writers at eight mainstream sports websites and newspapers, and faced them off in a battle for forecasting supremacy.
Here are the eight competitors: Chad Ford of ESPN, Sam Amick of Sports Illustrated, Jonathan Givony of Draft Express (via Yahoo! Sports), the staff of NBADraft.net (via Fox Sports), Steve Alexander of Rotoworld.com (via NBC Sports), Sean Deveney of Sporting News, Mitch Lawrence of The New York Daily News, and Mark Heisler of The Los Angeles Times.
To find out whose mock draft was the most accurate, we calculated the the margin of error for each forecaster's picks. For example, Chad Ford had Bismark Biyombo 5th in his mock draft, but Biyombo went 7th in the real draft, so Ford had an error of two spots for that pick. Then we averaged the forecaster's error for all of their picks to find our Average Error Per Pick scale.
#8 Sean Deveney (Sporting News)
Average error per pick: 5.3 spots
Correct picks: 5 (T-7th place)
Number of predicted first-rounders taken: 25/30 (T-5th place)
Deveney was right to pick Marshon Brooks and Jordan Hamilton back-to-back. Unfortunately they both went 10 spots later than he predicted.
#7 Jonathan Givony (Yahoo! Sports via Draft Express)
Average error per pick: 4.86 spots
Correct picks: 5 (T-7th)
Number of predicted first-rounders taken: 24/30 (T-7th)
Outside predicting four of the top six picks, Nikola Vucevic at 16 was the only pick Givony got exactly right.
#6 Steve Alexander (Rotoworld via NBC Sports)
Average error per pick: 4.76 spots
Correct picks: 7 (T-1st)
Number of predicted first-rounders taken: 26/30 (T-2nd)
Alexander was tied for the most correct picks. But he was hurt by predicting Josh Selby at 28. Selby went 21 spots later.
[Alexander's final mock draft]
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See Also:
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- Here?s A Roundup Of The Flimsy Trade Rumors Flying Around Before Tonight?s NBA Draft
- Forget The Hype, Foreign Phenoms Don?t Have Special Powers
Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/sportspage/~3/r7b2CB7s8Zo/nba-mock-drafts-2011-6
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