March Madness 2011 Predictions Ponder Butler's Upset Chances Against Wisconsin
By now, everyone is well aware of the Butler Bulldogs' Cinderella credentials from last season. However, after a pair of tense wins in the first two rounds of the tournament, both decided in the final second of the game, the eighth-seeded Bulldogs seem to have luck coming out the wazoo.
Now that they've made the Sweet 16, they'll face the fourth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers in what promises to be a close (if not all that high-scoring) clash.
The Badgers pose a serious threat to the Bulldogs' hopes of repeating their Final Four trip. Bo Ryan's team is as hard-nosed and tough as they come, and they have a pair of bona fide stars in point guard Jordan Taylor and forward Jon Leuer.
The Badgers' swing offense can be tough to stop, as it's all about finding and exploiting mismatches off of screens. When it works, Leuer, Taylor and fellow post presence Keaton Nankivil make scoring look easy. But, when it doesn't, Wisconsin drops a howler like their 36-33 loss to Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament.
Defensively, Wisconsin is as good as they come, allowing less than 60 points per game this season. They don't give many uncontested looks at the rim, and they close down elite scorers on a regular basis.
However, the Badgers are far from perfect. Their offense can go into a serious funk, and if Taylor and Leuer get shut down or just go cold, this team is in trouble.
They're facing a Butler team whose style of play is very similar to their own. The Bulldogs have a stellar sharpshooter in Shelvin Mack, and a rangy big man in Matt Howard. However, Butler is more than just a two-man show; there's a deceptive amount of scoring depth on this team, as guard Shawn Vanzant, center Andrew Smith, and forward Khyle Marshall are all capable of shouldering at least some of the load offensively, while the sharpshooters in the Bulldogs arsenal can get hot at any time.
While Butler's defense isn't quite as good as it was during their title game run last March, don't think this team can't lock down on opponents. Guard Ronald Nored is capable of locking down on a variety of players, while Matt Howard is a strong defensive presence in the post as well, when he's not in foul trouble.
That brings us to the Bulldogs' biggest flaw: fouls. Howard seems to have two fouls from the instant the game tips off sometimes, and Butler can't afford to be without him or Mack for an extended period of time. They have to play smart and avoid fouls if they want to win this game.
This isn't going to be a shootout, as both teams feature elite defenses sure to minimize the other's open looks. In the end, I think Butler has the talent to grab another victory, and head into the regional final with a good chance to make it back to the Final Four.
Final Score: Butler 64, Wisconsin 61. A defensive struggle throughout, look for Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard to prove too much for the Badgers to handle, assuming Howard can stay off the bench.
For more March Madness, check out NCAA Tournament 2011: Who Is the Best of the Sweet 16 Teams Left?
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