The year 2010 is over and the year 2011 has begun.
In a few months, a new team—or perhaps the same team—will be handling the Larry O'Brien trophy. Of the 30 teams in the NBA, there are 19 who have effectively no chance. There are two whose chances once looked better, but now are diminishing albeit for different reasons, and a few teams who will make the playoffs, but won't go far.
For research I utilized two separate predictors, the Hollinger Playoff Odds and Basketball Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report. The teams in this slide show are based on the averages of those two objective rankings with a dash of common sense. While some opinion is spiced in, these are largely objective. Probabilities and records are based solely on the objective reports. Essentially teams that have at least a one percent chance by the average objective listings are the teams that follow. There are two exceptions to this, and they are explained.
You're probably thinking, why a top nine list? What's wrong with a top 10? Well, there's only nine teams that realistically have a chance. Unfortunately, reality doesn't always fit into neat round numbers. Here are some teams I considered as a 10th team, but rejected, and the reason I rejected them.
New York Knicks
I know Knicks fans are excited about their new team, and they are an exciting team to watch. I didn't include them because offense can only take you so far, and they're ranked 24th in the NBA in defensive rating. No team has ever won an NBA Championship with a defense that ranked that low. The Knicks offense is good, but it's not good enough to overcome 64 years of history. I can revisit this if they add Anthony but even then, I can't help but wonder if more offense and even less defense is what this team needs.
New Orleans Hornets
They started off smoking hot, but they are sinking fast. After starting the season with an 11-1 record, since they've been basically around .500. The Hornets are just not good enough. They need another piece before they can contend. I can reconsider this if it turns out that the Hornets that started the season are the "real" Hornets, but for now, it looks like they just started well, and the saying goes, it's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the best team not on this list, and the one team that is a better than one percent chance not listed. The reason is not that they aren't good enough to be on it, but rather, because they probably aren't going to be the same team at the end of the season. If the trade deadline comes and goes, and Anthony has not gone anywhere, I'll reconsider.
Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Jonathan Albaladejo
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