Who Will Be Crowned the NFL's Rushing King?

At the end of Week 10 of the NFL, the race for the league's top rusher is heating up and it looks like it's coming down to one of five guys. Someone may emerge from the crowd with a big game or two, but the five guys mentioned below are starting to pull away from the rest of the pack with the numbers they're putting up, and the winner surely has to come from one of them.

Who are they and what are their chances of taking the title?

 

1. Fred Jackson (BUF)

Jackson currently leads the league in rushing yards, totaling 917 yards and more than 100 yards per game (101.9). He has had six games of 100-plus rushing yards, 10 runs of 20-plus yards and three runs of 40-plus yards.

The homestretch for Jackson looks strong, coming up against several teams that struggle against the rush—namely Tennessee, San Diego and Miami—and looks set to add heavily to his total in these games.  

Estimated rushing total: 1,673 yards

 

2. LeSean McCoy (PHI)

Running second—nice pun—is LeSean McCoy with his 906 yards total, averaging 100.7 yards per game. Alongside Michael Vick, McCoy has turned the Philadelphia Eagles' rushing offense into the most explosive in the league, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He has had four games of 100-plus rushing yards, 10 runs of 20-plus yards and one run of 40-plus yards.

McCoy's last seven games see him take on relatively sound run defenses such as Seattle, the Jets and Dallas, whilst facing both the Giants and Washington—both of which will add significantly to his run total. Unfortunately, Vick will run the ball one too many times, and McCoy will fall desperately short.

Estimated rushing total: 1,649 yards

 

3. Matt Forte (CHI)

Matt Forte in recent weeks has carried his Chicago sides to victory, chalking up 869 yards for the year at 96.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. While Forte is slightly less than others in carries per game (18.7), he has made up for it with four efforts of 100-plus yards, including a monstrous 205 rushing yards against Carolina. Forte also has 11 runs of 20-plus yards and four runs of 40-plus yards.

His home run sees him take on weak run defenses for four straight weeks in the AFC West before finishing the season with strong rush defenses in Seattle, Green Bay and Minnesota. Weaker performances earlier in the year, such as the two-yard effort against Green Bay as well as the 49-yard game against New Orleans will prove costly, as Forte finishes the season short of both Jackson and McCoy.  

Estimated total: 1,619 yards

 

4. Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Arguably the best runner in this group and indeed the NFL, Peterson has built the Minnesota offense around his dynamic ground game, clocking up 846 yards for the season at 94.0 yards per game. His 4.7-yard average per carry has seen him also notch up six runs of 20-plus yards and three runs of 40-plus yards.

Peterson's final seven sees him take on several weak defenses in Oakland and Detroit, to name a couple, and only has to face two tough defenses in Atlanta and Washington before the season ends. Minnesota's offensive troubles will cause Peterson to have another brilliant season, but not enough to take the title.  

Estimated total: 1,590 yards

5. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)

Jacksonville's grind-out style of play has suited Jones-Drew this year as he's already notched up 859 yards at 94.9 yards per game. He has had 21.2 attempts per game his year—noticeably more than anybody else on this list—with five runs of 20-plus yards and one run of 40-plus yards.

Jones-Drew has probably the best run home out of the five here, with Jacksonville taking on two strong run defenses in Houston and Atlanta, but also taking on five very weak run defenses in Cleveland, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Indianapolis. And this run home will help his grand total, but not enough, as he gains ground on Jackson and McCoy, but still falls short.  

Estimated total: 1,622 yards

 

So, Jackson wins from McCoy with Jones-Drew gaining ground late to round out the top three. Sadly for all the guys mentioned on this list, their respective teams miss the playoffs, and thus all of these five can run as much as they want, but only to their couch to watch the real teams in the playoffs.

 

Note: For all those playing along at home, estimated totals were decided by the average of upcoming opponents rush yards allowed per game with the runner's current average yards, adding together the total of the remainder seven games with the runner's total yards so far.

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/942424-who-will-be-crowned-the-nfls-rushing-king

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